Time to venture out of the Tri State Area for this one...
Right now, this is a tough forecast because different models are showing different solutions, and this is the storm that will bring a pattern change to the Eastern 1/2 of the country.
Lets analyse and compare 3 primary models in regards to this storm to try to reach a solution. These models are the NAM, GFS, and Euro.
1st, the 12z Euro....
At hour 48, it has the low pressure system diving into the northern Midwest from Canada, but with no real cold air to work with, it should be a mostly rain situation for most at 1st. Notice that the cold arctic air is still in Central Canada.....
Between 48-72hrs, the low over the upper Midwest transfers it energy into a newly formed low over the lower Midwest. Notice the 1007mb low. At this point in time (72 hours) the cold air in Canada begins to drop south.
Between 72-96 hours, major changes take place. The Euro keeps this 1 low over Kansas and moves it NNE while deepening RAPIDLY. It pressure drops 23mb in 12 hours according to this model. This now strong low pressure would pull the COLD air from Canada into the Upper Midwest behind it. This would allow for a major snow and winds situation to develop NW of the low.
The Euro would give some areas in Minn and northern Wis MAJOR snow accumualtions. It would however make this a rain to snow situation for most people including Kevin and Jordan.
The Euro solutions makes a lot of sense....
Next, lets look at the 18z NAM....
This solution shows this storm staying unorganized as there are 3 separate lows from this storm. That would not allow any cold air to come south from Canada keeping the precip light and mostly rain.
This solution makes no sense to me, and I think that the NAM doesnt know how to handle this stormas it is showing 3 seperate low pressures. The NAM always does this at 60-84hrs. It kind of doesnt know how to intalyze into one storm.
Next, lets look at the 18z GFS...
This model shows basically the same thing as the Euro except that the storm is weaker and further east. This would allow for some snow to develop along the back side, but nothing close to the intensity that the Euro is showing.
I like the Euro solution with the strong storm hitting the north, but not digging to far south. This solution makes sense considering that this will be the pattern changing storm.
See this topic for more information:
http://www.theweatherservice.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=3385
-Chuck
Right now, this is a tough forecast because different models are showing different solutions, and this is the storm that will bring a pattern change to the Eastern 1/2 of the country.
Lets analyse and compare 3 primary models in regards to this storm to try to reach a solution. These models are the NAM, GFS, and Euro.
1st, the 12z Euro....
At hour 48, it has the low pressure system diving into the northern Midwest from Canada, but with no real cold air to work with, it should be a mostly rain situation for most at 1st. Notice that the cold arctic air is still in Central Canada.....
Between 48-72hrs, the low over the upper Midwest transfers it energy into a newly formed low over the lower Midwest. Notice the 1007mb low. At this point in time (72 hours) the cold air in Canada begins to drop south.
Between 72-96 hours, major changes take place. The Euro keeps this 1 low over Kansas and moves it NNE while deepening RAPIDLY. It pressure drops 23mb in 12 hours according to this model. This now strong low pressure would pull the COLD air from Canada into the Upper Midwest behind it. This would allow for a major snow and winds situation to develop NW of the low.
The Euro would give some areas in Minn and northern Wis MAJOR snow accumualtions. It would however make this a rain to snow situation for most people including Kevin and Jordan.
The Euro solutions makes a lot of sense....
Next, lets look at the 18z NAM....
This solution shows this storm staying unorganized as there are 3 separate lows from this storm. That would not allow any cold air to come south from Canada keeping the precip light and mostly rain.
This solution makes no sense to me, and I think that the NAM doesnt know how to handle this stormas it is showing 3 seperate low pressures. The NAM always does this at 60-84hrs. It kind of doesnt know how to intalyze into one storm.
Next, lets look at the 18z GFS...
This model shows basically the same thing as the Euro except that the storm is weaker and further east. This would allow for some snow to develop along the back side, but nothing close to the intensity that the Euro is showing.
I like the Euro solution with the strong storm hitting the north, but not digging to far south. This solution makes sense considering that this will be the pattern changing storm.
See this topic for more information:
http://www.theweatherservice.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=3385
-Chuck
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