….Short Term….

Last night was a very cold night, with lows in most places dropping down into the 40's and 30's.

Central Park: 48 (6 degrees above normal)

Newark: 41 (1 degree above normal)

Bridgeport, CT: 38 (normal temperature)

LaGuardia: 49 (7 degrees above normal)

JFK Airport: 45 (4 degrees above normal)

Islip, NY: 38 (1 degree below normal)

However, today, with the strong SW'ly flow, a great deal of warm air advection occurred, allowing high's to rise up into the 60's:

Central Park: 65 (11 degrees above normal)

Newark: 66 (11 degrees above normal)

Bridgeport, CT: 61 (7 degrees above normal)

LaGuardia: 63 (8 degrees above normal)

JFK Airport: 61 (6 degrees above normal)

Islip, NY: 60 (5 degrees above normal)

22Z Analysis shows a weak cold front approaching the area from the west. There were currently light showers associated with this front. The strong low pressure system it is extending from will move into Southeastern Canada, bringing the best dynamics/chances for rain to our north. However, a light shower overnight cannot be ruled out. Lows should range from the mid/upper 40's to lower 50's. Monday will feature another day of Southwesterly flow, allowing temperatures to reach just about where they were today. A strong low pressure system that was developing over the Northwest portion of the United States will drop into the Plains and eventually move into the Great Lakes. A cold front will move south of the region, but will stall out and eventually start moving back northward as the warm front of the low pressure system. This will greatly increase dewpoints and theta-e potential. The warm front will cause an overrunning rain situation throughout the region, with most models pointing upwards of an inch of rain around the region from Monday night into Tuesday. Eventually, the warm front moves north of us and we are once again the warm sector by Tuesday evening.

….Medium Range…

The weather should continue to get more interesting during this period. Severe Weather seems to be becoming more of a possibility as we move closer to the event. Below is todays Euro Maps for Tuesday/Wednesdays Severe Event. You can clearly see the massive 979mb low moving Northeastward. Draped down in association with it is what looks to be a squall line of stronger precipitation.

Usually I would not be so bullish on an event from one model, but the NAM also concurs with the squall line situation.

The Severe Weather will certainly become an interesting insertion to our weather, and we will continue to monitor it as we get closer to the event.

…Long Range…

Models are now printing out the possibility of a coastal low offshore late next weekend or early next week. GFS is the strongest model, showing a low pressure tracking southeast of the cape. Accumulating snows felt in well interior Southern New England. However, Euro prints out a much weaker situation and the Low Pressure is well southeast of the cape and the precip just grazes the coast. Euros situation is colder, but GFS is warmer. Therefore we can either go with Stronger Low and Mostly Rain or Weaker Low and maybe snow showers at the coast. However, a mix of the solutions would bring a mostly snow event with a marginably strong coastal low off Cape Cod. Will go with the warmer solution on this one until we see more support for the stormier solution. Definetly something to watch in the future.