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Unsettled weather begins Wednesday evening

By John
Published on 1:32 AM at , , , , , ,
NAM model showing high temps
in the 60's today (Wednesday). 
The pleasant weather of the beginning of the week will become somewhat of a distant memory as we approach Wednesday, and continue through Thursday. A strong gradient in the mid levels of the atmosphere will develop across the Northeast by the end of the week, and the gradient will eventually extend down towards the surface in the form of a well defined frontal boundary, which will settle near the area by Thursday morning. This frontal boundary will serve as a "highway" for low pressure and moderate to heavy precipitation to develop at the surface, as a strong disturbance moves over the boundary in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Such a development will bring a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation to the forecast area, beginning on Thursday and continuing through Thursday evening. However, today (Wednesday) looks to be salvaged, with clouds in and out and temperatures in the lower 60's. The threat of precipitation should hold off until the evening hours, and even then it will be just spotty showers. The heavy precipitation won't begin until Thursday.


ECMWF model showing potential
significant coastal storm on Saturday.
Notice cold air being drawn into
the storm. Courtesy: Stormvista.com
DUAL EVENTS MAY BRING A SURPRISE: As mentioned earlier, the weather will take an unsettled turn beginning on Thursday. The initial culprit will be a gradient in the mid levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, the gradient will become well defined as a frontal boundary settles near the area. A wave of low pressure will ride along this front, tracking just south of Long Island. Making the situation more complicated is the intrusion of significant cold air which is expected as the storm passes and the front sags south. This will bring colder temperatures into the system on Thursday, and the potential would exist for some frozen precipitation (yes, we're serious) in the higher elevations and the distant interior. The snowfall would be short lived and is likely to say away from the coast and the city, but we can't rule out a few flakes in the immediate suburbs and especially interior/higher elevations. 


This weekend looks to provide more dramatics, as the boundary settles offshore. Forecast models are indicative of the development of a low pressure system along this front, which could track north and then northeast up the East Coast. Such a track could (emphasis on could) bring the threat for frozen precipitation right back into the picture on Saturday, with the potential for snow, once again, away from the coast. However, the forecast models have been highly inconsistent, and it's going to take some time to iron out the exact track of the system. Some forecast models have the storm missing completely out to sea. Needless to say, we're watching it very closely. Stay with us for more details as the week continues. 


Article written by JH. Published October 26th, 2011 at 1:26am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  
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