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Rainy Thursday, weekend still up in the air

By John
Published on 2:21 AM at , , , , , , ,
NAM model showing low pressure
along a front near the area on
Thursday afternoon. 
A strong gradient in the mid levels of the atmosphere will develop across the Northeast on Thursday , and the gradient will eventually extend down towards the surface in the form of a well defined frontal boundary, which will settle near the area beginning Thursday morning and afternoon. This frontal boundary will serve as a "highway" for low pressure and moderate to heavy precipitation to develop at the surface, as a strong disturbance moves over the boundary in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Such a development will bring a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation to the forecast area, beginning on Thursday and continuing through Thursday evening. The precipitation looks to be somewhat spotty early, as mentioned above, so it won't be a deluge for your morning commute. However, by mid-morning the precipitation intensity should pick up, and it will continue on and off throughout the remainder of the day. Making the situation more complicated is the intrusion of significant cold air which is expected as the storm passes and the front sags south. This will bring colder temperatures into the system on Thursday evening, and the potential would exist for some frozen precipitation  in the higher elevations of the distant interior. The snow would be short lived and will stay away from the coast and the city as well as the immediate suburbs. The official forecast is below...


Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with rain likely. High near 55. West winds around 5 miles per hour. A dreary and chilly day.


Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. The showers could end as snow showers far north and west and in higher elevations. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Low near 38. Cooler inland. West winds 5 miles per hour. 


WILD WEEKEND? This weekend looks to provide more dramatics, as the boundary settles offshore. Forecast models are indicative of the development of a low pressure system along this front, which could track north and then northeast up the East Coast. Such a track could (emphasis on could) bring the threat for frozen precipitation right back into the picture on Saturday, with the potential for snow, once again, away from the coast. However, the forecast models have been highly inconsistent, and it's going to take some time to iron out the exact track of the system. Some forecast models have the storm missing completely out to sea. Needless to say, we're watching it very closely. Stay with us for more details as the week continues. 

Article written by JH. Published October 27th, 2011 at 2:20am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the end of the week into the weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  
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