NAM model showing low pressure affecting our area Friday

The partly cloudy skies over the region Tuesday Night were a welcomed sight for those who couldn't wait to escape the rain and cloudy conditions that we endured most of the day on Tuesday. However, they won't last long...and unfortunately most of Wednesday may feature clouds as well. A disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere will approach from south to north (moving from the Mid-Atlantic states towards our area), bringing clouds and the potential for scattered showers with it. This weak disturbance is one very isolated "spoke" of energy related to a much bigger storm system which is back to our west over the Central United States. So although it may provide our area with unsettled conditions on Wednesday, the real heavy rain may not come until Friday into Saturday, when the large mid and upper level storm nears the area. Highs tomorrow, despite the clouds and potential showers, will be much warmer than the past few days...reaching into the middle 70's. You can thank the warm front which passed on Tuesday (bringing us showers and clouds) for the warmer weather. Unfortunately, we won't have the luxury of the enjoying the warmth in the sun.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Partly cloudy early, then becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered showers. Warmer, with highs near 77. Southeast winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 30%. We'd recommend short sleeves despite the increasing clouds...temperatures in the mid 70's will feel warm compared to the last week or so!

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60's. Southeast winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Definitely bring a sweatshirt along.

SHOWERS & CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

A large storm system over the Central United States is forecast to shift eastward towards the Ohio Valley and Northeast by this weekend. Smaller disturbances will affect our area through the week, before the heavy rain potential arrives Friday and early Saturday. Although it's too early to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will occur, it's certainly safe at this point to say that the end of the week into the first half of the weekend does not look pretty. The potential for heavy rain amounts definitely exists as tropical moisture gets involved on Friday as well. We will keep you updated over the next few days as the system draws closer, and the forecast models begin to converge on the area of heaviest rain as well as the timing of the precipitation.

Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 21st, 2011 at 12:50am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.