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NAM model showing the large storm to our west.
Image depicts energy in the middle atmosphere.

The unsettled weather which our area experienced on Wednesday will likely foreshadow the weather which is on the way for the second half of the week. We can thank an approaching mid and upper level storm system for that, which will bring the potential for heavier and steadier rain and Friday and early Saturday. Until then, however, we won't have any time to prepare for the unsettled weather, as showers and clouds will be around leading up to the approach of the main system. We are currently dealing with a weak disturbance, moving from south to north around the larger system to our west, which is providing our area with clouds and showers. This weak disturbance is one very isolated "spoke" of energy related to the much bigger storm system which is back to our west over the Central United States. So, as mentioned, although it may provide our area with unsettled conditions.. the real heavy rain may not come until Friday into Saturday, when the large mid and upper level storm nears the area. Highs today, despite the clouds and potential showers, will still be warmer than the past few days..reaching into the lower to middle 70's. High dew points, clouds, and south east winds will make it feel damp, though. Scattered showers are also a good bet throughout the day.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers. Highs in the middle 70's, with southeast winds keeping dew points and moisture high. Showers could be briefly moderate to heavy, but should be scattered. Won't be a washout, but won't be a nice day either. Bring along an umbrella for sure.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, 40% chance of showers. Same deal, essentially. Low temperatures in the 60's, with the air still feeling damp. Might be a little too warm for a heavy sweatshirt.

HEAVY RAIN A THREAT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...

A large storm system over the Central United States is forecast to shift eastward towards the Ohio Valley and Northeast by this weekend. Smaller disturbances will affect our area through the week, before the heavy rain potential arrives Friday and early Saturday. Although it's too early to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will occur, it's certainly safe at this point to say that the end of the week into the first half of the weekend does not look pretty. The potential for heavy rain amounts definitely exists as tropical moisture gets involved on Friday as well. We will keep you updated over the next few days as the system draws closer, and the forecast models begin to converge on the area of heaviest rain as well as the timing of the precipitation.
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