NAM models forecast lows for tonight

Temperatures today, although warmer than the past several days, have so far been held down by clouds which began entering the area earlier this afternoon around 3:00pm. The clouds are mostly located to the north over New Jersey, Southeast New York, and the New York City area, where temperatures decidedly stopped rising around that time. In fact, many areas will likely have recorded their daily highs around 1 or 2 pm. Farther south, and even near the shore, temperatures were a degree or two warmer as the daytime sun was able to warm things up. The summer-air is still here, though, as dew points in the upper 60's to near 70 remain in place over the area. This will keep the air feeling humid and warm through this evening. Temperatures are expected to remain comfortably warm, though, so don't let the clouds fool you if your'e going to be headed out for the labor day weekend tonight. A short sleeved shirt and shorts will still suffice for this evening.

Severe storms only an isolated threat: The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of severe weather over Pennsylvania and Northwest New Jersey, but the threat is expected to be scattered with the potential for a few damaging wind gusts if any storms can make there way into the area. Farther to the south and east over New Jersey and the New York City Metro area, the threat will be far more isolated.. In fact, the threat for any rain will be isolated through this evening. We'll keep you updated.

Tonight (Sunday Night): A slight chance of thunderstorms, with low temperatures dropping only to near 70. Again, short sleeved shirts and shorts will be fine, but you may want to bring a sweatshirt along near the shore as it may be a bit cooler there with southerly winds (especially true for the south shore of long island with a wind off the water.

Tomorrow (Labor Day): Unfortunately, Labor Day looks to feature a rising chance of rain and cloudiness, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will only reach towards the low 80's, with south winds. The rain and thunderstorms could be heavy at times. Definitely bring rain gear and a sweatshirt along if you're going to be outside.

Tropics and heavy rain to highlight next week: Unfortunately, the beautiful weather we've been experiencing over the past several days seems to finally be losing it's grip on the area, at least judging from most forecast models and the pattern evolution over the next several days.. Tropical Storm Lee is forecast to make landfall on the Gulf Coast and move inland---and then phase/interact with a northern stream disturbance over the Central US (pictured to the left with the remnants of lee just to it's east over PA). The result will be the development of moderate to heavy rain and a low pressure system moving along a front near the area Monday Night into Tuesday. The forecast remains highly uncertain, though...so don't cancel any plans yet. Low confidence forecast to say the least.

Forecast model tracks for Katia (9/4/11)

Katia rapidly strengthening: Katia strengthened to a hurricane overnight and and is showing continued signs of organization, with maximum sustained winds now at 105 miles per hour. Lee remains a Tropical Storm over the Louisiana coast  as of the 5:00pm National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory. As far as impacts on our area (we already discussed Lee's remnants and potential for impacts), Katia still looks to recurve to our east over the open waters of the Atlantic. However, the storm is still several days away so we urge caution in the forecast track beyond around 3 days or so. The statistics, synoptics, and meteorology argue against any track that could impact our area, but it's important to remember how far away the storm is, and how much the pattern could change as it moves towards our area. We will, of course, keep you updated. 

Article written September 4th, 2011 at 5:32pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.