NAM model showing rain to our west on Monday

We hope you've enjoyed the pleasant weather that has marked the last several days since the passage  of Irene last weekend. Although the air was initially cooler and crisp, a bit of a summer-like feel has worked it's way into the region the last few days as a ridge both in the middle of the atmosphere and at the surface allowed for a good amount of warming.  Temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday worked into the middle 80's, with dew points rising towards 70 degrees making the air feel moist and humid. Additionally, overnight low temperatures only dropped (and are forecast to drop Monday morning) to near 70 degrees. That being said, we can't complain as the sun has been shining for a good majority of the last week. That's all to change soon, as a frontal boundary is forecast to stall near the area and interact with both a disturbance near the Great Lakes and the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee. We have a whole ton of information below, so make sure to keep reading and stay informed!

Today (Labor Day): Labor day will be characterized by unsettled weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms early (in the wee hours of the morning) will give way to a break in precipitation during the late morning and afternoon hours, although clouds could stick around. High's will rise into the mid 80's during the afternoon. Then, as the front nears the area and begins to interact with energy in the middle of the atmosphere, rain is forecast to increase in coverage especially over western areas. The rain will be slower to arrive farther to the east, but showers and thunderstorms will still be around. In response, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for western portions of the forecast area for the potential of heavy rain and isolated flooding.


Tonight (Monday Night): Cloudy, and rain and thunderstorms are still around. The amount of coverage will depend on the exact positioning of the front, which remains uncertain. That being said, we are certain enough regardless of the exact positioning of the heaviest and steadiest rain...to say that rain is likely throughout much of the area Monday Night. The Flood Watch previously mentioned remains in effect through Tuesday morning. Low temperatures dropping into the upper 60's. Sweatshirts and rain gear should be worn.
THE DETAILS...

Heavy rain positioning remains uncertain: As we mentioned above, the exact area that receives the heaviest rain remains somewhat up in the air. The pattern will be unstable as a front stalls near the area, but the exact positioning of the front will determine where the heaviest rain can track. The front will have extra juice from both a disturbance over the Great Lakes, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee moving northeast through the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic. For instance, the NAM model keeps the front just to the west of the area and the heavy rain remains over Eastern Pennsyvlania and Western New Jersey. Some other forecast models have the front nearer to the region, bringing moderate to heavy rain over the area through Tuesday.

NAM forecast total rain ending Wednesday

Obviously, we're concerned about the potential for heavy rains over isolated areas in this set up. Our area has been impacted by heavy rains over the last month (we set the all time wettest month record at NYC in August), and the last thing we need is more rain. But the truth is, at this time, that the forecast models are just too inconsistent for us to officially nail down where this front will be. Our best guess would be that the heaviest rain should be relegated to Eastern PA and Western NJ, with moderate rains over NYC, tapering to lesser rains farther to the east. This makes the most synoptic sense given the current placement of the front and a blend of the forecast models. Still, the uncertainty is troubling. We'll stick with you guys on both Facebook and Twitter, and obviously here as well, to keep you as updated as possible.

Article written September 5th, 2011 at 12:17am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.