The quiet weather Monday and Tuesday will give way to a developing coastal storm, which is set to provide the area with another significant snowfall. Model data has converged amongst a further west track, which will ultimately provide more moisture and precipitation to the region. There remains some uncertainty in the finer details, which may eventually have more significant impacts on the forecast. But, it appears that the variance amongst the models is much less than it was earlier today. The snow is expected to begin from southwest to northeast Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, and continue through Wednesday. The snow is forecast to be heaviest Wednesday morning. Very heavy snow is expected along Long Island, the New Jersey shore, and into Connecticut. As a result, we have issued Heavy Snow Warnings for Long Island, Connecticut, and the Jersey Shore (for more than 6 inches of snow and heavy snow rates in under 12 hours)...and Snowstorm Warnings for the remainder of the area. We've also issued a Storm Total Snowfall Forecast. The storm total snow forecast will be updated several times a day with our latest forecast amounts, so check back for more details. Also be sure to check back for more updates as the storm approaches. Featured image: NAM model forecast showing the area of very heavy snow over the forecast area, specifically Long Island and Connecticut. Also note the low pressures just off the coast.

Today (Tuesday): Partly cloudy early, then some increasing clouds late with a 40% chance of snow in the later evening. High near 32. North wind 5 to 8 miles per hour.

Tonight: Snow, heavy at times. Low near 26. Winds northeast at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Overnight snow accumulation of 5 to 8 inches.

Need more? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming storm and week ahead, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. Article by John Homenuk. 3:02am January 11th, 2011.