18z NAM 12/5 48 hour forecast

Meteorological winter arrived five days ago today, and pretty much four and a half of those days (with the exception of the beginning of Wednesday, pre frontal passage) has felt more like the heart of winter than anything, especially around this area. Temperatures reached into the mid 30's for highs this Sunday afternoon, and that will be the continuing trend through the work week. The wintry winds will strengthen even more by the middle of the work week, gusting over 20 miles per hour at times out of the northwest. That leaves many to beg the question: where is the snow? The answer lies in the fact that this pattern is quite anomalous for our area this time of year. Whenever you have an anomalous type pattern that is sustained for a long period of time, it becomes difficult to get heavy precipitation events involved as well. In our case, a large upper level trough is parked over the Northeast US, which is not only supplying the cold and wintry air, but suppressing any precipitation chances well to the south. Do not fret, snow lovers, the possibility exists for some light flurries or snow showers towards the middle of the week. After that, the potential exists for some wintry weather to make it's approach towards the region by next weekend as the trough's grip over our region relaxes. We will be watching. Stay tuned for a post regarding the long range potential. Featured image: 18z NAM from this afternoon 48 hour forecast, showing the forecasted high temperatures on Tuesday. Notice the strong northwesterly winds and high temperatures barely above freezing.

The Forecast

Tonight (Sunday Night): Cold, and partly to mostly cloudy with a low temperature in the mid 20's. Winds west and a bit breezy at 10 to 20 miles per hour.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Cold, with a high temperature near 37. Winds west at 15 to 20 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance of snow showers. Cold, with a low temperature in the mid 30's. Winds gusty out of the west at 15 to 20 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Article by John Homenuk. 6:34pm December 5th, 2010. Need more? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.