NYC has seen both a white Christmas and New Year's only a handful of times in the past several decades -- however, this year looks to be included in that group as we have a light snowfall on the way for tomorrow into tomorrow night. The precipitation will progress through the region in two waves, the first of which will arrive Thursday morning, the second Thursday evening into the early overnight. Let's take a look at tonight's new 00z model data, the soundings in particular, in order to examine the New Year's Eve situation. Soundings are important in any winter weather forecast as they depict the vertical temperature profile of the atmosphere, from the surface up to cloud level and higher. Thus we can see if there will be any warm, above freezing layers preventing snow formation.
NAM soundings indicate the entire column will be cold enough to support snow across most of the area. Only immediate coastal stations such as Belmar (eastern Monmouth county) and eastern Long Island will have marginal surface temps of 33-34F. However, once 10 miles or more inland, it'll be 32F or below at all levels during precipitation. Main question - will precip be heavy enough to stick on roadways to cause hazardous travel? We've had events at 25F yield only wet roads because precipitation was too light. Will that be the case here? Well, for NYC, Long Island, central and NE NJ, salted roadways will help melt much of the light-moderate snow as it falls, however, still drive very carefully as slippery spots are likely with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. Good news for travelers is this storm shouldn't cause a big headache, and good news for us as we'll have some snow to add to the festive New Year's mood.
First wave of precip - this sounding is from the 00z NAM, valid tomorrow early afternoon for NYC. Profile supports all snow.
NAM soundings indicate the entire column will be cold enough to support snow across most of the area. Only immediate coastal stations such as Belmar (eastern Monmouth county) and eastern Long Island will have marginal surface temps of 33-34F. However, once 10 miles or more inland, it'll be 32F or below at all levels during precipitation. Main question - will precip be heavy enough to stick on roadways to cause hazardous travel? We've had events at 25F yield only wet roads because precipitation was too light. Will that be the case here? Well, for NYC, Long Island, central and NE NJ, salted roadways will help melt much of the light-moderate snow as it falls, however, still drive very carefully as slippery spots are likely with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. Good news for travelers is this storm shouldn't cause a big headache, and good news for us as we'll have some snow to add to the festive New Year's mood.
First wave of precip - this sounding is from the 00z NAM, valid tomorrow early afternoon for NYC. Profile supports all snow.
Second wave - around time of ball drop in NYC, here's the sounding. Mid levels may support freezing drizzle or mix precip early evening, before changing to light snow later in the evening as the atmosphere becomes isothermal from 850mb down to the surface. Temps around freezing.
GFS soundings and other mesoscale models are in agreement with the NAM on surface temps generally near 32F or slightly below during times of light-mod precipitation. When all is said and done, 1-3" should be on the ground, with the immediate coast of Long Island and central NJ closer to 1". Happy New Year everyone!
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