Just a quick hit here this morning with regards to a favorite winter analog year vs. 2009 for the first 14 days of October.

Here are temperature departures for the CONUS for this month through the 14th. The clear indicators here are a well below pattern in the Central Plains and generally the Central United States through the Northern Plains into portions of the interior Pacific Northwest. Temperatures further east along the eastern seaboard are more towards normal, while some slightly above normal temperatures exist in the southeast, thanks to a persistent southeast ridge.







A quick look at October 2002 departures show a strikingly similar pattern. This doesn't mean the pattern was identical the entire time, but at this point it's as good of a match as you are going to get.


The similarities are really outstanding, including the presence of the mean trough/below normal temps over the Central/North Central US and the above average temps in the southeast in response to the southeast ridge.








Now, let's take a look at the first 13 days of October H5 (500mb) anomalies in a crucial area of the North Pacific


2009


Also very similar. The current pattern would argue one very similar to that of October 2002, which would be good news for those hoping for a snowy winter. However, we have a long way to go to get to the promised land and factors like the El Nino and its ultimate strength and placement of tropical forcing mechanisms remain to be seen. The recent cold outbreak in the area is a nod towards a favorable situation, but nothing more.

I'll be taking a look at the 6-10 and 11-15 day pattern tomorrow.