What an absolutely gorgeous day outside today. Temperatures running above seasonable averages with cloudless skies most of the day. A fall day to remember. Currently, some high cirrus are seen streaming into the area as a high pressure system continues to further itself east of the area into the Atlantic. Tomorrow will be characterized by a good chance of showers, especially with latest forecast soundings indicating good southerly flow influxing abundant low level moisture into the region. This will all come into play ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary from the great lakes, with the result likely being a good chance of showers tomorrow and Wednesday.

Model Guidance handling of a large southern stream cutoff low continues to be poor/sub par, with some guidance taking it eastward without connecting with northern branch energy being extended southward. Either way, Tuesday looks rainy.


At this point, the upper level low is located across the Southern US, and the strong moisture advection ahead of it is bringing a warm and moist airmass in fron the Gulf of Mexico. Low level shear remains strong across the Gulf Coast, and the chance for isolated tornadoes does exist today (as is evident on todays 19z SSFC Day 1 Convective Outlook). The Slight Risk is valid with a 5% Tornado contour...5% Wind Contour as well. The Severe Weather threat is expected to progress EWD towards the southeastern states as the upper low heads there as well. Have a great Monday Night and enjoy the rest of this beautiful fall day, it probably won't get this warm again until spring.

John