Winter Arrives...With A Bang?
At 1:30pm Today, December 21st...Winter Officially Began. I know many of you are wondering this one question...how will it come in? This is quite a complicated forecast coming up, Just in time for the Holiday Weekend. Lets go ahead and take a look at some of the factors going into this forecast and some changes we have seen in forecast guidance.
Over the past few days, models have really been doing terrible with handling the pattern coming up over the next few days. There are a few things that have changed since yesterday..and they are strikingly evident. Lets take a look at them here..
If you remember, yesterdays 18z GFS showed a storm that interacted strongly with the southern stream and came up the coast as a noreaster. However, remember how we discussed that it was the perfect track and it still did not give us snow.. Now take a look at last nights 00z GFS...shows no precip on Christmas day..and the weak system comes in the day after Christmas. The big note here is that there is NO INTERACTION WHATSOEVER with the southern stream energy.
This does not let this storm form into a true Noreaster..infact there is really not much coastal influence at all. This situation would yield rain showers on Christmas Night, and nothing else. There are still alot of questions to be answered with this event..but even if we do get a snow event, it will be a minimal one.
Over the past few days, models have really been doing terrible with handling the pattern coming up over the next few days. There are a few things that have changed since yesterday..and they are strikingly evident. Lets take a look at them here..
If you remember, yesterdays 18z GFS showed a storm that interacted strongly with the southern stream and came up the coast as a noreaster. However, remember how we discussed that it was the perfect track and it still did not give us snow.. Now take a look at last nights 00z GFS...shows no precip on Christmas day..and the weak system comes in the day after Christmas. The big note here is that there is NO INTERACTION WHATSOEVER with the southern stream energy.
This does not let this storm form into a true Noreaster..infact there is really not much coastal influence at all. This situation would yield rain showers on Christmas Night, and nothing else. There are still alot of questions to be answered with this event..but even if we do get a snow event, it will be a minimal one.
Next Snow Chance: December 25/26 Potential Impact:  Comments: System looks to be minor at this time as far as snowfall goes...some snow is POSSIBLE for a short period of time on the backside of the system on Christmas evening or the morning of December 26th. State tuned for more information. |
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