Christmas Snow Event? Looks Wet, Atleast at the Start
Well folks..its that time of year again...talks of a White Christmas have begun again. This year we are looking at quite a complicated situation ahead. We will try and tackle it as well as possible. Before we go any furthur, please take note of the New Snow Tracker which has been enabled in regards to the Christmas Threat. Anyway, onto the complicated situation. A few days ago we were settling into some sort of agreement in regards to the Christmas event...that it would either be a miss, or rain. But over the last few days we have seen a few shifts in models that could lead to a..may I say, Snowier Solution?
Firstly, lets take a glance at some model runs over the past few days. To Your Right is the GFS from 00z Last night, at 144 hours. You can cleary see an area of low pressure centered over North Carolina. Thanks to Southeast Winds and an Inland Low Pressure area, we see a Wind Driven Rain storm on Christmas. The important thing to notice here is really the placement of the area of low Pressure.
Now, lets take a look at the latest model runs and shifts. To your right is todays 18z GFS run at 126 Hrs. What you can clearly see is a deeper low pressure system, and a major shift to the east. Taking into account the bombing area of low pressure, temperatures would be supportive of snow just inland, while coastal areas would stay mostly a rain event with a change to snow. So what we see here is a major shift in location of the low pressure area and type of precipitation
In addition, we have seen a few other models pick up on the possible easterly track of the system (NOgaps, GGEM, and a tad on the EURO). All in all, we have seen a few shifts to the east here that bring inland areas to a snowevent on Christmas. However, being that we are still quite far away from the event, I think I will stick to this call:
Coast: Rain to possible snow
Inland: Rain To Snow
Well Inland: Possible Snowfall depending on exact track.
As we get closer to the event, more details will be unvieled and we can get a better handle on the situation.
Well folks..its that time of year again...talks of a White Christmas have begun again. This year we are looking at quite a complicated situation ahead. We will try and tackle it as well as possible. Before we go any furthur, please take note of the New Snow Tracker which has been enabled in regards to the Christmas Threat. Anyway, onto the complicated situation. A few days ago we were settling into some sort of agreement in regards to the Christmas event...that it would either be a miss, or rain. But over the last few days we have seen a few shifts in models that could lead to a..may I say, Snowier Solution?
Firstly, lets take a glance at some model runs over the past few days. To Your Right is the GFS from 00z Last night, at 144 hours. You can cleary see an area of low pressure centered over North Carolina. Thanks to Southeast Winds and an Inland Low Pressure area, we see a Wind Driven Rain storm on Christmas. The important thing to notice here is really the placement of the area of low Pressure.
Now, lets take a look at the latest model runs and shifts. To your right is todays 18z GFS run at 126 Hrs. What you can clearly see is a deeper low pressure system, and a major shift to the east. Taking into account the bombing area of low pressure, temperatures would be supportive of snow just inland, while coastal areas would stay mostly a rain event with a change to snow. So what we see here is a major shift in location of the low pressure area and type of precipitation
In addition, we have seen a few other models pick up on the possible easterly track of the system (NOgaps, GGEM, and a tad on the EURO). All in all, we have seen a few shifts to the east here that bring inland areas to a snowevent on Christmas. However, being that we are still quite far away from the event, I think I will stick to this call:
Coast: Rain to possible snow
Inland: Rain To Snow
Well Inland: Possible Snowfall depending on exact track.
As we get closer to the event, more details will be unvieled and we can get a better handle on the situation.
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