Well I wake up and look at the GFS and EMCWF and I am very happy with what I see in terms of forecasts by each model and the long term aspects but I won't be posting on that quite yet as first off I am more concentrated and time consumed with the possible storm.

First off the GFS





Really mainly some entrenched STJ moisture doing all the digging by itself with no real phased or interaction with PJ moisture. Low pressure each coast aka shortwave (X) providing only extreme northern areas of New England with snow it really pumps of 850mb temps ahead of the low as it tracks right up and through New England. Good note New England shortwave (JAN 3) and the New Years storm as mentioned will be crucial is convoluting the pattern than breaking it or slowing down the progressiveness with rapid succession of storms leading to blockiness down the road. Also shortwaves are going to tend to amplify and dig the trough in a secession type manner. Point in case is the retrogression theory first low way west into the OV New Years maybe some secondary development than JAN 3 storm further digging and amplifying of east coast trough more retrogression E into New England than third shortwave more retrogression and amplification of trough aka our east coast storm and hopefully accompanied by convolusion and blocking as well as NEG to NEU NAO and retreat of PNA.

IF BASED ON THE IDEA A STORM DOES DEVELOP IN THE 3-4th timeframe in the west there are a couple general ideas...

1. Shortwave in the midwest is purely STJ energy no phasing digs and situates itself than becomes a SECS ala 6zGFS but not out to sea.

2. Shortwave develops in west digs down and phases with some energy from PJ becomes MECS.

3. Shortwave develops digs south than tries to combine or phase with energy over the SE in association with STJ around GULF and Florida similiar to what the GFS was doing when it showed a huge SE storm than monster up the coast. This is MECS threat also.

4. Than of course theres the out to sea solution and lakes cutter which are both self explanatory but less likely if indices go as expected and blocking forms.

Solution one is a weaker and faster solution with no phase hence the SECS threat and number 2-3 are slower, stronger, phase, maybe cutoff and of course therefore MECS solutions. Remember the blocking will be critical as well as what happens with current indices.

Dual blocking feature coastal low pops off NC coast and 1028mb high to the north whichs STAYS there because of blocking feature. 6z GFS supports scenario 1 even the 500mb features are somewhat skewed IMO.










Blocking feature pops low off Carolinas keep in mind this is a 2m temp map thats why I am not going to specific. Appears to have blocking feature.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/getchart/ca...;!chart.gif

Nice hefty lp east of NYC with blocking feature still apparent.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/getchart/ca...;!chart.gif

Low near Maine.

Maps show progression of storm signalling def not a fast mover but not slow either supports a MECS type scenario 2-3. Blocking feature there. Remember with 2m temp maps I can't go into specifics just throw out some generalities im seeing. With the low forming off the Carolinas I am assuming more digging and probably a phase time scenarios hence slower solution supporting scenario 2-3 MECS type setup. Good news also winds during the storm look to howl from N according to this run.

Just an update based on some models continue to monitor and watch the situation over the next few days and We will provide updates continually as we get closer and The details continue to unfold.