The upcoming next few days will feature a close call, but cool, crisp, and clear conditions look to prevail. A storm system will cut off the Mid Atlantic Coast from Saturday into Sunday. There are a few reasons that this system isnt coming up the coast. A few days ago, we were looking to see if Model Guidance was hinting at these solutions. It now appears that these wont occur.

• A Phase of sorts beween the shortwave and the northern stream - Models have completely released this solution from guidance. A partial phase between the shortwave and the Northern Stream would lead to the storm being tugged closer to the coast and furthur north.
• Weaker High in the Northeast- Models have also abandoned this solution. A weaker high in the northeast would give the system more breathing room to come north. However, models show an elongaded, stronger high pressure that will basically block the system from moving that far north.
• Weak Ridging in the SE- Just a bit of SE ridging would do good for this system, nudging it a bit furthur north. This solution is also gone on mostly if not all models.

Basically, most models are in agreement that we wont have any sort of phase between the Northern Jet and the Shortwave, we will have a strong high pressure in the Northeast, and we wont have any ridging in the SE too nudge the system north. All these combined should allow for the system to slide off the Mid Atlantic Coast.

As far as who will be affected, it appears likely that areas of the Carolinas and Southwest
Virginia will be hit the hardest with a possible area of 4+ snows. The system should then slide off the coast, posing no real threat to areas North of DC. Some snow showers may linger into the Philadelphia area and Southern New Jersey.

The following week should continue to be clear and crispt as the pattern gets set to reload. We will have to watch a period around or after the Holiday Weekend for a return to an active period.

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