...SHORT TERM...
TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHT THE AREA TONIGHT...HAVE BEEN TRACKING NARROW BAND OF -/SN TRACKING TROUGH WASHINGTON DC AREA THIS EVENING...LIGHT PRECIP SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY VIRGA..BUT HEAVIER RADAR RETURNS ARE INFACT FALLING AS SNOW...SOME REPORTS ON VARIOUS INTERNET ACCESSES HAVE BEEN OF A COATING/.50 INCHES OF NEW POWDER..WILL INCLUDE THIS IN TONIGHTS FORECAST FOR THE NYCMETRO AREA, MAINLY FOR AREAS IN THE S/SW METRO AREA...WE DO EXPECT THIS BAND TO WEAKEN...SHOULD IT CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AND APPROACH THE AREA, WILL ISSUE PROPER POST WITH UPDATE.. TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 40'S THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA...EARLY IN THE DAY SKIES WILL BE OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF A STRAY SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS..AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 30'S AS HIGHS.
...MEDIUM TO LONG TERM...
IT IS HERE THAT THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AND UNKNOWN. WINTER WILL SEEM TO BEING ON SUNDAY WHEN A SYSTEM MOVES TWOARDS OUR AREA. GFS HAS BEEN SEEMINGLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM, A FAST MOVER WITH A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. HOWEVER THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS, WITH BARELY ANY PRECIP FROM THAT FIRST SYSTEM AT ALL. THOUGHTS HERE ARE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK MOVER AND PCP WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENT..WITH NO MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER 1" LIKELY IN THE METRO AREA OR SURROUNDING SUBURBS. UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE TO GROW AS WE PROGRESS TWOARDS MONDAY. MODELS HAVE A SYSTEM PROGRESSING OUT OF THE GULF AND AT THAT POINT SPLIT UP CAMP. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH AGREE ON COASTAL STORM..NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING A SKIRTER QUITE A FEW TIMES. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT THAT WE KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS HAS A HUGE BIAS WITH UNDERDOING THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COULD AFFECT THE RN/SN LINE WHICH WAS FAIRLY CLOSE TO US ALREADY, AND A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY IN FACT BRING WARMER AIR INSIDE IT. THESE ARE JUST PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS HERE, THE SYSTEM IS STILL A WAYS AWAY TO BE MENTIONING PRECIP TYPES OR AMOUNTS. NOTE THAT TOMORROWS MODEL RUNS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TWOARDS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, BUT WILL NOT COMMENT ON ANYTHING MAJOR AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE AMAZING AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHT THE AREA TONIGHT...HAVE BEEN TRACKING NARROW BAND OF -/SN TRACKING TROUGH WASHINGTON DC AREA THIS EVENING...LIGHT PRECIP SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY VIRGA..BUT HEAVIER RADAR RETURNS ARE INFACT FALLING AS SNOW...SOME REPORTS ON VARIOUS INTERNET ACCESSES HAVE BEEN OF A COATING/.50 INCHES OF NEW POWDER..WILL INCLUDE THIS IN TONIGHTS FORECAST FOR THE NYCMETRO AREA, MAINLY FOR AREAS IN THE S/SW METRO AREA...WE DO EXPECT THIS BAND TO WEAKEN...SHOULD IT CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AND APPROACH THE AREA, WILL ISSUE PROPER POST WITH UPDATE.. TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 40'S THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA...EARLY IN THE DAY SKIES WILL BE OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF A STRAY SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS..AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 30'S AS HIGHS.
...MEDIUM TO LONG TERM...
IT IS HERE THAT THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AND UNKNOWN. WINTER WILL SEEM TO BEING ON SUNDAY WHEN A SYSTEM MOVES TWOARDS OUR AREA. GFS HAS BEEN SEEMINGLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM, A FAST MOVER WITH A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. HOWEVER THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS, WITH BARELY ANY PRECIP FROM THAT FIRST SYSTEM AT ALL. THOUGHTS HERE ARE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK MOVER AND PCP WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENT..WITH NO MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER 1" LIKELY IN THE METRO AREA OR SURROUNDING SUBURBS. UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE TO GROW AS WE PROGRESS TWOARDS MONDAY. MODELS HAVE A SYSTEM PROGRESSING OUT OF THE GULF AND AT THAT POINT SPLIT UP CAMP. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH AGREE ON COASTAL STORM..NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING A SKIRTER QUITE A FEW TIMES. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT THAT WE KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS HAS A HUGE BIAS WITH UNDERDOING THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COULD AFFECT THE RN/SN LINE WHICH WAS FAIRLY CLOSE TO US ALREADY, AND A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY IN FACT BRING WARMER AIR INSIDE IT. THESE ARE JUST PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS HERE, THE SYSTEM IS STILL A WAYS AWAY TO BE MENTIONING PRECIP TYPES OR AMOUNTS. NOTE THAT TOMORROWS MODEL RUNS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TWOARDS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, BUT WILL NOT COMMENT ON ANYTHING MAJOR AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE AMAZING AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
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