In the Mon/Tues timeframe, there will be a strong storm system approaching the NE from the south. On its way north, it will intersect a strong cold front coming through. Depending upon how fast this storm moves, and how far east/west it will track will determine who gets the snow and who gets rain.

Over the past few days, models have been HORRIBLE with handling this storm system. A few days ago, they had nothing forming along the coast. Yesturday, some models were showing this storm tracking so far west that places in the OV would watch for rain or snow while the NE would see major warmth out ahead of the storm.Today, as we near closer to this event, models have trended much further East again.

What Im going to do is make a prediction between both extremes. The Western extreme would have the storm riding up the Apps dumping some good snows in the OV while the NE would see mostly all rain. The Eastern extreme as shown by some of todays models would suggest an offshore track giving the NW suburbs of the big cities some snow. My track would put the storm onshore, and riding up the immediate coast. This track seems reasonable considering the way that the pattern will be laid out Mon-Tues.

I believe that this storm will move a LITTLE BIT faster then what models are currently showing. This is because models are a little slow at the start, and they take a while for the disturbance to get caught in the jet and taken into the NE. Because of this, the storm will intercept the trough coming through the NE further north then what models are showing. This would put the heaviest snow in NW New York state, and northern VT.

Here is a map of what my current thoughts are...