Weak storm systems will pass through the area in an active upper air pattern -- and with a general lack of cold air will provide the area with mostly light showers and drizzle. There is a chance that some of the precipitation falls as snow showers across the northern portions of the forecast area, but no accumulations are expected. Generally, temperatures will still be running slightly above average (what else is new so far this winter) and the lack of any appreciable snow will continue. But towards the end of the week, all eyes will turn to the Central United States...where a significant trough ejecting from the southwest states will attempt to phase with energy from the northern stream of the jet (over Canada). Forecast models remain very inconsistent with the interaction...some of them producing a large snowstorm, and some of them keeping the storm unorganized and well off the coast. Pictured right: GFS model showing a large and strong storm system off the east coast on Sunday.

The main factors behind the eventual formation of the storm are two pieces of energy, from the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. The forecast models, which bring the storm up the coast as a strong nor'easter, phase the two pieces of energy over the Central US..creating a powerful trough over the Eastern US by Saturday and Sunday. The forecast models which keep the system weaker and shunt the low pressure out to sea, have a non-phased solution. In this case, the energy weakens and slides off the coast. We'll have to watch the forecast models very carefully over the next few days to see which solution they are hinting at. Stay tuned!

Article written by JH. Published February 15th, 2012 at 2:10pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.