GFS model showing precipitation associated with a cold front near our area this afternoon.

Although the pesky surface low pressure that plagued our area with rain during the middle of last week exited the area a long time ago, the upper level disturbances are still circling around a larger disturbance over the entire Northeast United States. The result has been the presence of clouds and isolated showers during the afternoon over the past several days. Sun was more plentiful on Sunday, but high clouds are beginning to stream into the area once again this morning. The culprit is an approaching atmospheric disturbance over Eastern Canada, which will swing through the Northeast on Monday. It will bring a moderately strong cold front with it, which will be more recognizable by the temperature drop than any heavy rain. Still, clouds will be increasing by morning on Monday, and although we could still see some sun, showers are possible by the afternoon and through the early evening. By early Tuesday, the front and disturbance will have passed the area--so we are expecting much more sunshine on Tuesday. High temperatures today are expected to reach into the middle 60's, and overnight lows Monday evening into Tuesday morning will be chilly...falling into the 40's once again.

Late week disturbance could prove troublesome: A more significant cold front will near the area by later this week, and forecast models are showing signs of some stronger low pressure development on the front. Such a development would most certainly bring a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation to the forecast area. With the intrusion of significant cold air expected behind the cold front, the potential would exist for some frozen precipitation (yes, we're serious) in the higher elevations behind the front. Such an event would be isolated and likely confined to the higher elevations, but it's definitely worth mentioning. Either way, behind the front, we're expecting some of the coldest air so far this fall. We'll keep you updated during the week as we get a better idea of what's going to transpire.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Monday): Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. High near 65. West winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 30%, after 12pm.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early, with a chance of showers. Then clearing by dawn. Low near 50. West winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Article written by JH. Published October 24th, 2011 at 1:03am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.