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Radar image from wxunderground
shows movement and intensity of
precipitation over the last hour.
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Periodic moderate to heavy rain has been the story of the week, and it continues early this morning as another widespread area of rain developed over the area. Showers and thunderstorms were reported around midnight, with widespread lightning and some local flash flooding. This heavy rain was in response to a weak warm front just to the south of the area. Isentropic lift (forcing to develop showers and thunderstorms) increased late Wednesday night, allowing the heavier rain to develop. The moderate to heavy rain is forecast to continue through Thursday morning. However, with time, this rain is expected to push north and west, and the rain should once again become scattered, with showers hanging around through afternoon. There is a chance that we may dry out by this afternoon, but at the present time forecast models remain inconsistent. Regardless, the few hours of dry conditions should be accompanied by some scattered showers Thursday evening. Luckily, Friday looks to feature improved conditions, and the possibility of some sunshine.

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THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with rain likely early. The rain may be heavy at times, so prepare for some delays if you're traveling or commuting in the morning. Clouds will stick around much of the day, but we may see some breaks in the clouds by afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 70's, a few degrees warmer than the past few days. Definitely bring the rain gear along. 

NAM model's forecast highs for Friday
Tonight (Thursday Night): It appears possible that we may escape Thursday Night into Friday morning without any heavy precipitation. There could be scattered showers around, but generally, by Thursday Night the drying trend will be on. Low temperatures in the upper 60's to near 70. 

A look ahead to the weekend: This weekend looks to offer, comparatively, terrific conditions throughout our forecast area. Temperatures will rebound beginning on Friday towards the lower to middle 80's, with the sun returning as well. There is the chance for scattered showers, but nothing too intrusive. Thursday and Friday may both offer high surf and dangerous rip tides near the area beaches as Katia passes to our east. 

Article written by John Homenuk,  September 8th, 2011 at 12:16am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

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