NAM showing a backdoor cold front later Saturday evening. Note the onshore flow depicted by the model.

The pleasant and refreshing weather that Friday brought into the area will, unfortunately, be somewhat short lived this weekend. The culprit this time won't be a large disturbance in the atmosphere, instead it will be a small surface front. A back door cold front (front that moves east to west as opposed to the typical west to east direction) is expected to make an un-welcomed visit into the area by Saturday Night into Sunday, and will bring with it the return of an onshore flow (winds off the ocean, see the graphic) and showery weather. Although the rain will not be steady or continuous like it was earlier this week, by late Saturday clouds will be on the increase and showers could become scattered throughout the area. The first half of the day, though, should be relatively dry. Saturday Night will feature a continued chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two--and the forecast looks similar for Sunday. Essentially, early Saturday would be your best bet to enjoy the remainder of the weekend if you're looking for a rain-free forecast. Temperatures should still get towards 80 early Saturday, but we can't say the same for Sunday, when we look like we'll once again have trouble getting towards the mid 70's.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Saturday): Partly cloudy early...but increasing clouds throughout the day, which will lower and thicken at times. A chance of showers will become part of the forecast, especially after noon. High temperatures will still reach near 80, though, so don't pull out the sweatshirts and long pants just yet.

Tonight (Saturday Night): Mostly cloudy and again a chance of showers in the forecast. Low temperatures will drop into the middle 60's throughout the area, and the winds will have turned east off the ocean. Definitely bring a sweatshirt if you're going to be near the area beaches or water. Inland, you may be okay with a short sleeved shirt (depending on your tolerance).

TROPICAL UPDATE...

Nothing too drastic as far as changes on the tropical front this morning. Nate and Maria both remain tropical storms, and their paths similar to the forecast from yesterday. Nate has sustained winds near 50 miles per hour (down since yesterday), and Maria has sustained winds near 45 miles per hour (consistent since yesterday). Maria is forecast to conitnue northwest, and then recurve to the north and northeast. Currently, forecast model tracks take her along a very similar path as Hurricane Katia, which recently tracked between the US East Coast and Bermuda. The hurricane, currently, isn't expected to be a threat to the US Mainland, but we will continue to watch her carefully. Nate is forecast to continue westward the next two days or so, before making landfall on the Mexican coast as a tropical storm. Otherwise, no additional tropical activity is forecast. We will certainly be watching carefully, and we'll relay any information we get to you as soon as we get it.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 10th, 2011 at 3:08am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.