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NAM model showing temperatures in the 20's Wednesday
morning over the Northern Plains. 
Often times, it goes unappreciated. Most times, it becomes a subconscious way of life. However, if one were to take a look back at the diverse nature of the weather we experience in this part of the country, they would be surprised. Our area does not fall under the typical definition for a center of "severe weather". Still, this last calendar year has offered it all. From tornadoes in New York City last September 2010, to the record breaking winter of 2010-2011, to a summer which set records for above average temperature anomalies, all finally topped off by an earthquake felt on the east coast, and the severe impacts of Hurricane Irene. It has been a wild ride in our area. Yet, one thing remains consistent. Four times a year, the calendar switches to a new season. Whether it be Summer, Autumn, Winter, or Spring, the conditions which surround our daily lives change, so dramatically that we lose over 5 hours of sunlight in a 4 month period. This month, Autumn will officially begin on September 21st. Last month, we were still experiencing temperatures well into the 90's. Those seem like an incredibly distant memory, especially now, after a historic month of rainfall..where New York City set it's record for most rainfall observed in a month, ever. 

NAM model showing mid level
disturbance bringing cold air over
Northern US. NYC area is highlighted
in orange. 
Now, the season's changes are finally being observed on forecast models, which are showing the first true "cold front" since the Spring. A large upper level disturbance is forecast to move into the Northern Plains during the middle part of this week, and it will be carrying a ton of cold air with it. In fact, temperatures (in the image above) are forecast to drop into the 20's in the Northern Plains. And it's still technically summer! Although that statement probably only adds credence to the meteorological calendar (where autumn began on September 1st), it's more of a sign of change for us. It's the first time we're seeing the cold air, which will eventually engulf our entire area in just a few short months, enter the United States. Although the upper level disturbance won't provide this anomalous cold air to us (see the image to the left), the main culprit in the upper level disturbance we discussed earlier will move just to our north and west. This will allow temperatures later this week to fall into the 60's for high's and potentially lower 50's for lows. It could even drop into the upper 40's in the inland areas or higher elevations. 

This time of year often isn't welcomed by those who are hanging on to the last touch of warm air that the summer sun has to offer. Yet, it's definitely more prudent to enjoy the diverse and ever-changing weather that our part of the world has to offer. To be able to experience such diverse weather is a gift and a curse at the same time, as the changing patterns often bring severe weather ramifications. Still, the weather has something to offer for everyone, and in the coming month's the hands who hold it's favor will change once again, as they do every three months. We hope you'll stick around with us for the ride, there's a long autumn and winter in front of us. 

Article written by John Homenuk, September 12th, 2011 at 12:10am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

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