Tropical Storm Katia spinning in the Eastern Atlantic this morning

As of 11:00am this morning, Tropical Storm Katia remains near hurricane strength as it races through the Eastern  Atlantic Ocean. Over the past few days, Katia has been strengthening rather steadily. Although it underwent some dry air entrainment yesterday evening, the storm has since recovered and the strengthening trend is back on. Additionally, the atmosphere ahead of the tropical system is becoming increasingly ripe for additional strengthening, with weak shear and warm ocean temperatures. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast advisory gives Tropical Storm Katia sustained winds of 65 miles per hour, just below hurricane strength, on a West-Northwest movement at a speedy 21 miles per hour. Katia is forecast to continue moving on this heading for the next few days, before an eventual slight bend west followed by a recurve to the north and then northeast.

Forecast model tracks for Katia, showing a clear bend away from land by Day 5-7.

Although, as mentioned, Katia is still a tropical storm, the model guidance has been rather consistent in strengthening it into a major hurricane. In fact, the new National Hurricane Center forecast advisory does so as well. Luckily for us, and for all parties involved on the East Coast of the United States, she looks to do so well out in the Central Atlantic ocean, far away from any land impacts. Additionally, although the storm system is still several days away from even approaching Bermuda, forecast models have been converging on one general idea: the storm will have multiple chances to recurve away from land. There is an active troughing pattern over the Eastern United States at this time, unlike the one which was in place when Irene approached the coast. The trough's and associated fronts will sweep east off the coast, and likely at some point drag Katia with them, sending her north and eventually northeast into the Central Atlantic.

Finally, forecast models are pinning down the potential for some weak tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. There is a broad cyclonic flow in place, which given the amount of showers and thunderstorms currently over the Gulf of Mexico, could theoretically lead to the development of a Tropical Depression. Forecast models, NAM aside, are currently not overly enthused, and tropical track guidance hasn't been triggered yet. Still, we will be watching it for you through the end of the week. At the present time the impacts on our forecast area down the road are unknown, since the development of the system itself isn't set in stone either.

Article written August 31st, 2011 at 12:09pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the rest of the week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.