For the first time in over a decade, our area is threatened with a legitimate hurricane which may pass dangerously close to the region Saturday and Sunday. Hurricane Irene, currently a major Category 3 hurricane in the Southwest Atlantic, is forecast to turn north and northeast, passing near or over the Outer Banks of the Carolina's, and then scraping near the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey beaches before making landfall on Long Island and eventually soaring north into Connecticut and Southern New England. The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes the dangerous Hurricane Irene just east of the New York City metro area. Such a track, which is becoming somewhat increasingly likely, would provide the area with a multi-faceted threat of dangerous weather conditions late Saturday into Sunday. Featured image: Hurricane Irene rapidly strengthening in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean, early on the morning of August 26th, 2011. 


Forecast models continue to hone in on the exact forecast track--although this evening, some continue to develop a bit of a spread in the consensus, with some farther east (making landfall over eastern Long Island) and some farther west (making landfall over Western Long Island). Regardless of that, all of the forecast models take the hurricane dangerously close to the New Jersey beaches--enough to provide significant concern for extremely heavy rains throughout the entire area, the potential for high winds (well over hurricane force in certain areas), as well as the potential for a significant storm surge brought on by the hurricane's approach. In addition, astronomical high tides will create additional problems with the flooding and high surf that is expected.

The rain may very well be the main story of this storm system--as tropical systems at this latitude can produce copious amounts of rainfall, to the likes of which most other systems cannot produce. In addition, the hurricane will be in a favorable jet positioning for very heavy rainfall..which the forecast models are picking up on, most now indicative of near 10 inches of rain in some spots. With the rain coming down so quickly and heavily, the potential for widespread flooding will develop by late Saturday into Sunday. The winds, in addition to this rain, will cause the potential for widespread trees and power lines down (trees especially due to already moist ground conditions), and the potential for power outages. Although the strongest winds are typically on the east side of these systems, tropical storm and hurricane force winds are extending hundreds of miles away from the center of Irene. This is a very large tropical system. Featured image: National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Hurricane Irene. 

Hurricanes around this area are, in fact, quite rare, and it can come as a surprise to some that this is a legitimate threat this time around. However, it is important to react early and prepare ahead of time. Have your evacuation plan ready. Know your storm surge prone areas, and know your evacuation routes. Take action now to protect life and property--including tying down boats, removing loose outdoor objects, and preparing a "go bag", filled with first aid and safety tools. New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut have all declared a "State Of Emergency" in advance of Hurricane Irene. In addition, mandatory evacuations have been ordered for Cape May County in New Jersey, Long Beach Island in New Jersey, and Fire Island in New York. Thus far, voluntary evacuations are also in place along all shore areas in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Featured Video: Our Hurricane Irene Briefing discussion valid through August 26th, 2011, discussing the storm and it's features and potential high impact on our area. 

Hurricane Watches have been issued by the National Hurricane Center up and down the New Jersey shore and are likely to include Long Island and New York City by Friday morning and afternoon. These watches are meant to signify the potential for Hurricane conditions...including the potential for winds well in excess of 75 miles per hour...during the period of their issuance.

We urge you to take this threat seriously---but not to panic. Instead, prepare. It's the best way to be able to take action should the worst case scenario unfold. We will be with you every step of the way--be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook by clicking the links at the closing of the post below. Also, the link bar at the top of the post will serve as a navigation tool for our video updates and other information links to Hurricane Irene.

Starting Friday afternoon, a new post will hit this front page, and will be automatically updated as new information comes in. Thank's for your cooperation and as always, feel free to ask questions and leave comments here, or on our other social media networks.

Article written August 26th, 2011 at 1:05am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the end of the week into the weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on Hurricane Irene including forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.