New York Metro Weather has issued a Snowstorm Watch for: Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Passaic, Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Somerset, Middlesex, Monmouth, Mercer, Ocean, Burlington, and Union counties in New Jersey...Orange, Rockland, Putnam, Westchester, Manhattan, Bronx, Kings, Queens, Richmond, Nassau, and Suffolk Counties in New York...and Fairfield, New Haven, and Litchfield counties in Connecticut. This Snowstorm Watch is valid from 4:00pm Tuesday evening through 10:00pm Wednesday evening. A Snowstorm Watch is issued when forecasters expect the potential for six inches or more of snow to occur over the watch time period.--typically issued one to three days in advance of a storm system, prior to a warning. The snow accumulation may cause travel difficulties, delays, and stoppages...and may be hazardous to driving and traveling. The official text for the Snowstorm Watch is below. New York Metro Weather
Snowstorm Watch
1:12am January 10th, 2011
...This is not an official National Weather Service product and should not be confused for an official watch, warning or advisory...
*Counties incuded:
New Jersey: Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Passaic, Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Somerset, Middlesex, Monmouth, Mercer, Ocean, Burlington, and Union
New York: Orange, Rockland, Putnam, Westchester, Manhattan, Bronx, Kings, Queens, Richmond, Nassau, and Suffolk
Connecticut: Fairfield, New Haven, Litchfield
...Significant snowstorm may impact the area Tuesday and Wednesday...
*Hazards...A significant snowstorm with moderate to potentially heavy snow and travel difficulties Tuesday through Wednesday.
*Accumulations...Uncertainty still exists in the exact track of the forecast system. The mean forecast of all model guidance indicates around 4 to 8 inches of snow across most of the area, with higher amounts North and East of New York City. There is the potential for significant snow..in excess of 8 inches..if the storm tracks closer to the coast.
*Impact...Travel could be severely affected during the morning and evening commutes Wednesday. Prepare for potential delays now. If the storm does track further west, travel may become near impossible with very heavy snow and low visibilities.
*Timing...The snow is forecast to develop by afternoon Tuesday and spread northeast through the area. The heaviest snow is expected overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The snow is expected to slowly taper off from southwest to northeast Wednesday evening.
*Discussion...
...Coastal storm system may impact the area with snow Tuesday into Wednesday...
A coastal storm system is forecast to develop off the southeast states by Monday evening and Tuesday morning. This storm system is forecast to develop north and northeast as a strong upper level storm system approaches from the west. This will favor the development of the low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic coast, which is then forecast to move northeast towards the 40/70 Benchmark south of Cape Cod. The result will be the potential for another significant snow in the forecast area. The forecast models still project some uncertainty in the forecast track. A closer to the coast track would ensure heavy snowfall for the entire region..including New Jersey, New York City, on Long Island, and in Connecticut. A further east track would result in lower snowfall amounts throughout the entire area and heavier amounts to the east and north.
Even with the degree of uncertainty, we had enough confidence to issue the Snowstorm Watch this morning. Currently, it appears plausible (confidence over 50%) that any area in the watch could receive 6 or more inches of snow. The uncertainty at this time precludes any other snowfall total guesses or forecast maps. Things should be much more clear by Monday afternoon. If you have any plans for Tuesday into Wednesday, you should adjust accordingly.
Stay tuned to updates on this Snowstorm Watch page, as well as updates from our blog and text forecasts. As always, refer to your local National Weather Service for official forecasts and safety information.
A Snowstorm Watch means that forecasters expect the potential for 6 or more inches of snow to accumulate during the watch active time period within the watch area. This snow could cause severe travel difficulties, delays, or stoppages. It may be dangerous to travel during the watch time period. Please prepare for slippery and snowy roads and keep alert for updates on the situation.
JH
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