Winter Forecast: Preliminary Highlights

Our winter forecast is still in the "pre-production" stages at this point, continuing to gather data each day and take in the trends, ebbs, and flows of the fall pattern. The winter forecast will take into account the current and past ENSO state, year based analogs, upper air state and analogs, sea surface temperatures and sea surface temperature analogs.

Sneak Peak Highlights:

-Near average to slightly above average snowfall for most
-Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures.
-Above average precipitation.

Carefully watch the Aleutian low and it's impact on the potential +PNA ridging and west coast ridging. This has a big impact on amplification of shortwaves over the Central and Eastern US, which may occur too far to the west for coastal snows. NAO state remains problematic (see image below…which details favorable winter –NAO SST anomalies and current SST anomalies).


Current thoughts/highlights:

- Potential big year for the apps and inland. Interior PA/NY/SE Canada/NE may receive 200% of normal snowfall
- Fluctuating temperatures with frequent pattern changes and a few chances fora "big one".
- There's a decent chance that the "big storm" of the season could be a deep miller a coastal
- There's a decent change that the "big storm" of the season could be a deep miller a and hug the coastline/LI
-Fast moving pattern aloft...little chance for established blocking...and blocking set up may not be conducive for coastal snowfalls when it is established.

Again, just some brief thoughts at this time frame. we will see how things transpire the next few weeks and a final product will be issued. Aforementioned NAO image is below. Lots more work to be done guys. Take it easy and have a good Friday.