New York MetroWeather
Technical Forecast Discussion
May 3, 2010 5:30pm
Near Term
Cold front has pushed eastward (and has taken associated showers and thunderstorms with it). Boundary of moist airmass has pushed eastward as well with the 65+ F dew points of this weekend now a distant memory. Dry conditions through tonight post frontal passage with temperatures dropping into the 60's overnight with clearing skies.
Short Term
Upper level shortwave will pass nearer to the region Tuesday..and this creates an interesting forecast for potential convection, especially north and west near the better forcing. Although dew points will only be in the 50's F, some weak instability is forecast to develop by afternoon, owing mainly to increasing surface temperatures and mid level temperatures near -20 C. The combination of this weak convective instability, forcing, and ~40kts of bulk shear could support some isolated to scattered thunderstorms by afternoon. These storms..especially given the cold pool aloft..could be capable of producing some small hail or strong winds. The relatively meager instability should be the mitigating factor..and thus only a "Low" risk for severe weather (see today's Day 2 convective outlook on our homepage). Thunderstorms should wane by evening.
High pressure builds in behind this front and will remain in control for 12 to 24 hours. Temperatures will continue to run above to well above normal (+10 degrees for diurnal highs...+5 to +8 degrees for mins).
Long Term
Next system of interest enters the picture by late week as a surface low ejects northeast out of the Plains states. High pressure will be built into the area but eventually will be scoured out..potentially by Thursday..with the potential for convection. Potential for severe weather thereafter depends on the northward push of the warm front--whereas should it get far enough north, our area would be warm sectored with a surface low to our northwest tracking near Buffalo per HPC guidance..a good setup for synoptic severe weather in our area. Model guidance still not in good enough agreement for higher confidence in severe weather at this range..but showers/thunderstorms a good bet. Regardless, this system pushes northward..eventually dragging a cold front through the area (probably by Sunday morning) with high pressure building in again. Wash, rinse, repeat pattern likely to continue thereafter with a fast flow and above normal H5 heights...intruded every week or so by a large H5 trough that displaces over the Great Lakes.
JH
Technical Forecast Discussion
May 3, 2010 5:30pm
Near Term
Cold front has pushed eastward (and has taken associated showers and thunderstorms with it). Boundary of moist airmass has pushed eastward as well with the 65+ F dew points of this weekend now a distant memory. Dry conditions through tonight post frontal passage with temperatures dropping into the 60's overnight with clearing skies.
Short Term
Upper level shortwave will pass nearer to the region Tuesday..and this creates an interesting forecast for potential convection, especially north and west near the better forcing. Although dew points will only be in the 50's F, some weak instability is forecast to develop by afternoon, owing mainly to increasing surface temperatures and mid level temperatures near -20 C. The combination of this weak convective instability, forcing, and ~40kts of bulk shear could support some isolated to scattered thunderstorms by afternoon. These storms..especially given the cold pool aloft..could be capable of producing some small hail or strong winds. The relatively meager instability should be the mitigating factor..and thus only a "Low" risk for severe weather (see today's Day 2 convective outlook on our homepage). Thunderstorms should wane by evening.
High pressure builds in behind this front and will remain in control for 12 to 24 hours. Temperatures will continue to run above to well above normal (+10 degrees for diurnal highs...+5 to +8 degrees for mins).
Long Term
Next system of interest enters the picture by late week as a surface low ejects northeast out of the Plains states. High pressure will be built into the area but eventually will be scoured out..potentially by Thursday..with the potential for convection. Potential for severe weather thereafter depends on the northward push of the warm front--whereas should it get far enough north, our area would be warm sectored with a surface low to our northwest tracking near Buffalo per HPC guidance..a good setup for synoptic severe weather in our area. Model guidance still not in good enough agreement for higher confidence in severe weather at this range..but showers/thunderstorms a good bet. Regardless, this system pushes northward..eventually dragging a cold front through the area (probably by Sunday morning) with high pressure building in again. Wash, rinse, repeat pattern likely to continue thereafter with a fast flow and above normal H5 heights...intruded every week or so by a large H5 trough that displaces over the Great Lakes.
JH
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