For the past few nights, models have been continuing to flucuate on the handling of a late week low pressure center across the northeast. The operational GFS had, for a while, shown a large low pressure wrapping up/occluding and whipping in cold air behind it, but latest runs have fluctated. The Euro seems to be doing the same as well. Both models ensembles are in shambles, so obviously at this time there is minimal confidence in any possible forecast. However, there are two possible events. Without getting into much detail on the first one, there's a great thread going on here on EasternUSWx forums regarding it. Personally, I feel this event looks more marginal, considering moisture recovery will be hard to come by after ~40F dewpoints for a few nights previous.

The second event could be more interesting, if the low pressure does indeed bomb out and head northeast into Southeastern Canada. Below are two images from the GFS this afternoon showing the strong low pressure and associated H5 vorticity maxima next weekend. Though the area would be slightly displaced southward of the main ascent/forcing from the cold frontal boundary, enough lift would likely be available to support a squall line event if enough instability could develop.


It will be interesting to see how model guidance continues to handle the trough/shortwave and possible big low pressure later this week, and as usual we will continue updating.

As for Sunday, it appears to be a beautiful fall day with High Pressure dominating the regions weather. Highs will be near 74-78 degrees across the region with a light breeze at most. Have a great end to your weekend.

John