Well Guys,
We are getting fairly close to the larger event here and we are still in basically a standstill here as far as the models go. We have seen almost zero consensus from them this entire time leading up to the storm. This has made it especially hard on forecasters, being professional, or not. The system and the events leading up to it are quite complicated and complex and are all going to play a huge role in the way this forecast turns out. Through the time tracking this storm so far, we have seen so many different flip flops and twists in the models, that anything radical wouldnt surprise me at this point. Though there is much uncertainty, models have focused basically on two different possible solutions here. One being surpressed and one being a coastal.
I was honestly surprised to see that not many people were paying attention to the exact progs of the first low in relation to the models forecasts. Take into account the 00z runs from 2 nights ago, which were the complete extreme surpression solution. Now take a look at yesterdays radar, and how overprogged this first system was. Not only was it not as large, but the precip wasnt nearly as strong as progged on the 00z Model Runs that night. However this extreme trend was short lived and we saw the trend back Northwest. Happy days. But at that point, the underdid the precip and intensity of the low pressure area, or our first storm. So basically we had two extreme solutions here that havent really matched up well with our storm.
Before I go any furthur, I would like to note that I am not issuing a call for the entire northeast here. I am going just for the NYC or general Northern MA/SNE area. I really think that issuing an entire northeast forecast at this point would be foolish. So i am basically sticking to the NYC area.
Anyway, I have noticed a few things on the models and trends with the models that have caught my eye.
12z ETA- This is the 2nd out of 3 runs to go for a coastal storm instead of a surpressed track, or out to sea which it was really consistant with for 4-5 runs in a row. Intresting to me that it has shifted like this.
12z GFS- The GFS is really puzzling me here. What made it shift so drastically to the SE like this? Could it be how fast the pattern is? Who Knows. Nothing to look forward to either 18z is always a crapshoot
Long Range RUC- Shows a nice coastal storm for the Northeast with some way blown over snow amounts (10+ NJ) but i think thats overdone and a bit too the west.
GGEM- I think this is the most important one here. GGEM showed a surpressed track last night and had everybody down and depressed. Psuhoffman has a great thread on the GGEM. The slow trend north is VERY important here.
There are quite a bunch of other low scale models that have trended furthur north and west this morning/afternoon. I think this could be a good sign, but guys, the models have really been ALL over the place this entire time with the storm/s. I think that we are really at a point where we should be watching the storms itself, not the individual model runs here. HOWEVER, before we go any furthur, a great point that was brought up by OKC weather man and is clearly visible upon glancing at 00z runs and 12z runs...the 12z runs have had a much better handle on the upper air data, and therefore producing a much more realistic look at the pattern. This could actually be quite important.
In summary, I think that we should keep looking at the models, of course for large scale trends and upper air pattern differences and such, but not for the smallest, miniscule changes. Thats a very foolish thing to do. If there was any model run that I would have to pick to have the best handle on it, it would be tonights 00z. The first storm would be compeltely out of the way, and full attention would be focused on the upper air patterns and surface situation right before our storm.
I have been really stumped by this storm here, and I cant really remember a time the models have had this much trouble with a synoptic situation. I think at this point a safe call would be to go with a mix of the coastal track and the surpressed track which would bring decent snows to I-95 and a fairly impressive coastal storm. Will most likely re-adjust after the 00z model runs tonight. What a tough call. Best of luck to those who try to do this also.
We are getting fairly close to the larger event here and we are still in basically a standstill here as far as the models go. We have seen almost zero consensus from them this entire time leading up to the storm. This has made it especially hard on forecasters, being professional, or not. The system and the events leading up to it are quite complicated and complex and are all going to play a huge role in the way this forecast turns out. Through the time tracking this storm so far, we have seen so many different flip flops and twists in the models, that anything radical wouldnt surprise me at this point. Though there is much uncertainty, models have focused basically on two different possible solutions here. One being surpressed and one being a coastal.
I was honestly surprised to see that not many people were paying attention to the exact progs of the first low in relation to the models forecasts. Take into account the 00z runs from 2 nights ago, which were the complete extreme surpression solution. Now take a look at yesterdays radar, and how overprogged this first system was. Not only was it not as large, but the precip wasnt nearly as strong as progged on the 00z Model Runs that night. However this extreme trend was short lived and we saw the trend back Northwest. Happy days. But at that point, the underdid the precip and intensity of the low pressure area, or our first storm. So basically we had two extreme solutions here that havent really matched up well with our storm.
Before I go any furthur, I would like to note that I am not issuing a call for the entire northeast here. I am going just for the NYC or general Northern MA/SNE area. I really think that issuing an entire northeast forecast at this point would be foolish. So i am basically sticking to the NYC area.
Anyway, I have noticed a few things on the models and trends with the models that have caught my eye.
12z ETA- This is the 2nd out of 3 runs to go for a coastal storm instead of a surpressed track, or out to sea which it was really consistant with for 4-5 runs in a row. Intresting to me that it has shifted like this.
12z GFS- The GFS is really puzzling me here. What made it shift so drastically to the SE like this? Could it be how fast the pattern is? Who Knows. Nothing to look forward to either 18z is always a crapshoot
Long Range RUC- Shows a nice coastal storm for the Northeast with some way blown over snow amounts (10+ NJ) but i think thats overdone and a bit too the west.
GGEM- I think this is the most important one here. GGEM showed a surpressed track last night and had everybody down and depressed. Psuhoffman has a great thread on the GGEM. The slow trend north is VERY important here.
There are quite a bunch of other low scale models that have trended furthur north and west this morning/afternoon. I think this could be a good sign, but guys, the models have really been ALL over the place this entire time with the storm/s. I think that we are really at a point where we should be watching the storms itself, not the individual model runs here. HOWEVER, before we go any furthur, a great point that was brought up by OKC weather man and is clearly visible upon glancing at 00z runs and 12z runs...the 12z runs have had a much better handle on the upper air data, and therefore producing a much more realistic look at the pattern. This could actually be quite important.
In summary, I think that we should keep looking at the models, of course for large scale trends and upper air pattern differences and such, but not for the smallest, miniscule changes. Thats a very foolish thing to do. If there was any model run that I would have to pick to have the best handle on it, it would be tonights 00z. The first storm would be compeltely out of the way, and full attention would be focused on the upper air patterns and surface situation right before our storm.
I have been really stumped by this storm here, and I cant really remember a time the models have had this much trouble with a synoptic situation. I think at this point a safe call would be to go with a mix of the coastal track and the surpressed track which would bring decent snows to I-95 and a fairly impressive coastal storm. Will most likely re-adjust after the 00z model runs tonight. What a tough call. Best of luck to those who try to do this also.
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