Say what you will about this season so far, but there certainly has been a noticeable lack of winter-like weather throughout the entire area. No matter how you slice it, temperatures are running a few degrees above average throughout the entire forecast area as a whole since the beginning of December (or the start of meteorological winter). Since that point, New York City has seen no measurable snowfall and even interior locations are struggling with very minimal snowfall to speak of. The problem is, really, that there has been an absence of cold air. And although this arctic air intrusion won't provide the potential for any measurable snow, the first real push of arctic air into the area is always noticeable in every winter. This one will certainly be no different, and in fact may be more of a shock to the system than others as we are coming off some mid-50 degree temperatures this past weekend. An arctic front will cross the area Tuesday, changing the feel of the air for a day or two. The atmospheric pattern doesn't support any prolonged periods of cold air (the lack of snow makes sense when you think about it, huh?) so this arctic airmass will be in and out in about two days. Pictured right: NAM model, showing the forecast low temperatures throughout the area Tuesday Night through Wednesday morning.

Temperatures Tuesday will drop during the day, and northwesterly winds will become moderate to strong for a period during the afternoon. To set the scene, some flurries may be in the air in response to a mid level disturbance in the atmosphere. The real cold will come Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning, when temperatures will fall into the teens in the city and near the coast and into the single digits inland. This will be the coldest air we've seen so far this season. High temperatures Wednesday will again be slightly below freezing, with another chance at some flurries. However, by the end of the week the big trough responsible for the arctic air will begin to lift out, and temperatures will slowly rebound towards normal...into the 40's for highs.

THE FORECAST AT A GLANCE... (or see the overview)

Today (Tuesday): Partly sunny and breezy, with a chance of flurries. High near 30,  falling throughout the day.  West winds 15 to 20 miles per hour, potentially gusting higher. Not a pleasant day if being comfortable outside is your desire.

Tonight: Mostly clear and very cold. Overnight low near 15. West winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. The coldest night of the year so far. A very bold statement. Seriously, though, the coldest night of the winter season for sure...you'll want to seriously bundle up if you're headed out.

Article written by JH. Published January 3rd, 2012 at 1:36am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.